Oil prices are still subject to the shale within the expected range of shale oil production in the United States
The repeated extension of the cut-off period is the result of the agreement being continually affected by a number of internal and external factors, including increased production in Nigeria and Libya, which have been exempt from the reduction in production, and increased shale oil production in the United States, which now appears to be more a long-term threat .
According to a monthly report released on December 14, 2017, by the International Energy Agency, there are indications that the supply of crude oil in the United States may increase continuously in 2018, causing dissatisfaction with the competitors who are cutting production. The report said that in September 2017, the average daily crude oil output in the United States increased by 290,000 barrels to 948 million barrels, the highest since April 2015 the highest average. The report also predicts that U.S. crude oil output will increase by 390,000 barrels per day and 870,000 barrels per day respectively in 2017 and 2018. In addition, non-OPEC countries including the United States will increase their crude output by 1.6 million barrels per day by 2018.
"US WTI crude oil above $ 60 a barrel is very attractive to US shale oil producers and is expected to further increase their production in the medium term which will limit upside for US and global oil prices if you want to see By the time oil prices hit a groundbreaking ground again above $ 60 a barrel, demand-side rallies to provide upside momentum, and for 2018 we think oil prices will not go up too much but will fluctuate within the band. "UBS Erin Browne, head of the asset allocation for asset management investment solutions, told 21st Century Business Herald.
On the demand side, the IEA report predicts an increase of only 1.3 million barrels of crude oil demand growth in 2018, which means that the expected supply growth will exceed the growth in demand. The International Energy Agency estimates that there will be 200,000 barrels/day of surplus oil in the world in the first half of 2018, and the situation will not be improved until the second half of this year.
Some agencies forecast more pessimistic, Moody's release on January 2 predicted that the forecast oil price in 2018 will be 40-60 US dollars/barrel range shocks, mainly due to the United States shale oil production increase, although the global supply of However, the rate of implementation of the above agreement on production reduction is also in doubt.